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Wisconsin 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Wisconsin, David Crowley (D) had a 81% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 3.1 of Wisconsin's 8 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Wisconsin on the interactive map →Wisconsin governor's race
- Polling average: D+5.2 across 9 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 50% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+4.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 26%
- Fundamentals: D+4.5 (partisan lean even, national environment, incumbency) — 23%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Crowley | Tiffany | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 53% | 47% | D+5.7 |
| Marquette Law School538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 668 LV | 51% | 44% | D+6.5 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 10/16/2026 | 1,715 RV | 46% | 42% | D+3.3 |
| Z to A Researchunrated | 10/09/2026 | 662 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5.5 |
| Marquette Law School538 grade 3.0 | 9/30/2026 | 692 LV | 49% | 46% | D+2.5 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Wisconsin has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Wisconsin House races
Wisconsin has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 3.1 Democratic and 4.9 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-1Mitchell Berman vs. Bryan Steil | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | Toss-up | R+1.1 | 42% |
| WI-2Mark Pocan vs. — | Mark Pocan | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| WI-3 FlipRebecca Cooke vs. Derrick Van Orden | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | Tilt D | D+3.1 | 71% |
| WI-4Gwen Moore vs. Tim Rogers | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | Safe D | D+46.3 | 100% |
| WI-5Andrew Beck vs. Scott Fitzgerald | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| WI-6Brad Smith vs. Glenn Grothman | Brad Smith | Glenn Grothman | Likely R | R+16.7 | <1% |
| WI-7Fred Clark vs. Michael Alfonso | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | Safe R | R+17.5 | <1% |
| WI-8Rick Crosson vs. Tony Wied | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | Likely R | R+16.2 | <1% |
Open Wisconsin on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.