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Virginia 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Virginia, Mark Warner (D) had a 99% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats were projected to win about 7.4 of Virginia's 11 House seats (they held 6 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Virginia on the interactive map →Virginia Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: D+16.5 (partisan lean D+3, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Virginia does not elect a governor in 2026.
Virginia House races
Virginia has 11 congressional districts. Democrats hold 6 and Republicans 5. The model projects about 7.4 Democratic and 3.6 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-1Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | Toss-up | R+0.8 | 45% |
| VA-2 FlipElaine Luria vs. Jen Kiggans | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | Lean D | D+6.1 | 86% |
| VA-3Bobby Scott vs. Edwin Rivera | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| VA-4Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
| VA-5Tom Perriello vs. John McGuire | Tom Perriello | John McGuire | Lean R | R+7.4 | 10% |
| VA-6Beth Macy vs. Ben Cline | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| VA-7Eugene Vindman vs. Doug Ollivant | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | Safe D | D+17.0 | >99% |
| VA-8Don Beyer vs. Tony Sabio | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | Safe D | D+46.3 | 100% |
| VA-9Joy Powers vs. Morgan Griffith | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | Safe R | R+32.5 | 0% |
| VA-10Suhas Subramanyam vs. Dave Beckwith | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| VA-11James Walkinshaw vs. Arthur Purves | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
District polls: VA-1: adjusted polling average D+0.5 (1 poll, newest 10/01/2026), 3% of the projection; VA-2: adjusted polling average D+3.0 (1 poll, newest 10/14/2026), 4% of the projection; VA-5: adjusted polling average R+9.5 (1 poll, newest 10/01/2026), 3% of the projection.
Open Virginia on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.