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Montana 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Montana, Kurt Alme (R) had a >99% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats were projected to win about 0.5 of Montana's 2 House seats (they held 0 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Montana on the interactive map →Montana Senate race
- Polling average: R+14.7 across 7 polls (newest 10/20/2026) — 12% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+17.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 37%
- Fundamentals: R+22.8 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 51%
Open seat; independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead split the anti-Republican vote
Includes an 8-point penalty because independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead split the anti-Republican vote
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Bodnar | Alme | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insightsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 667 LV | 29% | 46% | R+14.1 |
| American Pulseunrated | 9/28/2026 | 604 LV | 26% | 45% | R+18.5 |
| Quantus Insightsunrated | 9/17/2026 | 625 LV | 24% | 44% | R+17.1 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton538 grade 2.3 | 9/11/2026 | 845 RV | 30% | 38% | R+8.2 |
| GQR538 grade 2.0 | 7/28/2026 | 500 LV | 27% | 41% | R+14.3 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Montana does not elect a governor in 2026.
Montana House races
Montana has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 2. The model projects about 0.5 Democratic and 1.5 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-1Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | Toss-up | R+0.3 | 48% |
| MT-2Brian Miller vs. Troy Downing | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
District polls: MT-1: adjusted polling average D+2.1 (3 polls, newest 10/22/2026), 9% of the projection.
Open Montana on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.