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Massachusetts 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Massachusetts, Ed Markey (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Maura Healey (D) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 9.0 of Massachusetts's 9 House seats (they held 9 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Massachusetts on the interactive map →Massachusetts Senate race
- Polling average: D+24.0 across 8 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+38.5 (partisan lean D+14, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Markey | Deaton | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 905 LV | 53% | 32% | D+19.4 |
| UMass Lowell538 grade 2.9 | 10/29/2026 | 850 LV | 55% | 26% | D+26.6 |
| Suffolk University538 grade 2.9 | 10/20/2026 | 500 LV | 60% | 32% | D+27.0 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 10/19/2026 | 800 RV | 56% | 29% | D+26.3 |
| MassINC538 grade 2.8 | 9/29/2026 | 800 LV | 54% | 28% | D+25.7 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Massachusetts governor's race
- Polling average: D+21.6 across 7 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+29.1 (partisan lean D+14, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Healey | Minogue | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 905 LV | 55% | 36% | D+17.4 |
| UMass Lowell538 grade 2.9 | 10/29/2026 | 850 LV | 57% | 29% | D+25.6 |
| Suffolk University538 grade 2.9 | 10/20/2026 | 500 LV | 59% | 36% | D+22.0 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 10/19/2026 | 800 RV | 57% | 32% | D+24.3 |
| MassINC538 grade 2.8 | 9/29/2026 | 800 LV | 54% | 32% | D+21.7 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Massachusetts House races
Massachusetts has 9 congressional districts. Democrats hold 9 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 9.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-1Richard Neal vs. — | Richard Neal | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| MA-2Jim McGovern vs. — | Jim McGovern | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| MA-3Lori Trahan vs. Gary Grossi | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| MA-4Jake Auchincloss vs. Thomas Stalcup | Jake Auchincloss | Thomas Stalcup | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| MA-5Katherine Clark vs. — | Katherine Clark | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| MA-6Dan Koh vs. Micah Jones | Dan Koh | Micah Jones | Safe D | D+26.5 | >99% |
| MA-7Ayanna Pressley vs. — | Ayanna Pressley | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| MA-8Stephen Lynch vs. Robert Burke | Stephen Lynch | Robert Burke | Safe D | D+33.1 | 100% |
| MA-9Bill Keating vs. Tyler MacAllister | Bill Keating | Tyler MacAllister | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
Open Massachusetts on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.