PoliGovPoliGov › 2026 Forecast › New Hampshire
New Hampshire 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New Hampshire, Chris Pappas (D) had a 95% chance of winning the Senate race, Kelly Ayotte (R) had a 90% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 2.0 of New Hampshire's 2 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New Hampshire on the interactive map →New Hampshire Senate race
- Polling average: D+7.7 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+8.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+11.5 (partisan lean D+2, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Shaheen retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Pappas | Sununu | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 2,040 LV | 54% | 42% | D+10.4 |
| UMass Lowell538 grade 2.9 | 10/29/2026 | 600 LV | 48% | 41% | D+4.6 |
| Saint Anselm College538 grade 2.4 | 10/22/2026 | 1,672 LV | 50% | 43% | D+8.2 |
| National Public Affairsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 50% | 43% | D+7.5 |
| Saint Anselm College538 grade 2.4 | 10/06/2026 | 1,042 LV | 51% | 44% | D+8.2 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
New Hampshire governor's race
- Polling average: R+7.1 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+11.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+2.3 (partisan lean D+2, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Warmington | Ayotte | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 2,040 LV | 48% | 48% | R+1.6 |
| UMass Lowell538 grade 2.9 | 10/29/2026 | 600 LV | 42% | 48% | R+8.4 |
| Saint Anselm College538 grade 2.4 | 10/22/2026 | 1,672 LV | 42% | 50% | R+6.8 |
| National Public Affairsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 38% | 54% | R+15.5 |
| Saint Anselm College538 grade 2.4 | 10/06/2026 | 1,042 LV | 45% | 52% | R+5.8 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
New Hampshire House races
New Hampshire has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH-1Stefany Shaheen vs. Anthony DiLorenzo | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | Likely D | D+11.0 | 98% |
| NH-2Maggie Goodlander vs. Lily Tang Williams | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Tang Williams | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
District polls: NH-1: adjusted polling average D+8.6 (3 polls, newest 11/01/2026), 29% of the projection.
Open New Hampshire on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.