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Tennessee 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Tennessee, Bill Hagerty (R) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Marsha Blackburn (R) had a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 0.0 of Tennessee's 9 House seats (they held 1 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Tennessee on the interactive map →Tennessee Senate race
- Polling average: R+22.0 across 1 poll (newest 9/02/2026) — 1% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+23.5 (partisan lean R+14, national environment, incumbency) — 59%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Bradshaw | Hagerty | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Poll538 grade 2.8 | 9/02/2026 | 1,200 RV | 31% | 51% | R+22.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Tennessee governor's race
- Polling average: R+12.8 across 2 polls (newest 10/20/2026) — 9% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+19.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 38%
- Fundamentals: R+15.1 (partisan lean R+14, national environment, incumbency) — 54%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Green | Blackburn | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Research538 grade 1.5 | 10/20/2026 | 635 LV | 32% | 44% | R+12.6 |
| Beacon Poll538 grade 2.8 | 9/02/2026 | 1,200 RV | 33% | 46% | R+15.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Tennessee House races
Tennessee has 9 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 8. The model projects about 0.0 Democratic and 9.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-1Kristi Burke vs. Diana Harshbarger | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | Safe R | R+40.9 | 0% |
| TN-2Michaela Barnett vs. Tim Burchett | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| TN-3Anna Golladay vs. Chuck Fleischmann | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| TN-4Victoria Broderick vs. Scott DesJarlais | Victoria Broderick | Scott DesJarlais | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| TN-5Chaz Molder vs. Charlie Hatcher | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | Likely R | R+16.6 | <1% |
| TN-6Mike Croley vs. Johnny Garrett | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | Safe R | R+19.9 | <1% |
| TN-7Darden Copeland vs. Matt Van Epps | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| TN-8Heidi Kuhn vs. David Kustoff | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| TN-9 FlipJustin Pearson vs. Brent Taylor | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | Likely R | R+13.5 | 1% |
Open Tennessee on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.