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Minnesota 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Minnesota, Peggy Flanagan (D) had a 94% chance of winning the Senate race, Amy Klobuchar (D) had a 99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 4.2 of Minnesota's 8 House seats (they held 4 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Minnesota on the interactive map →Minnesota Senate race
- Polling average: D+6.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+9.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+13.5 (partisan lean D+3, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Smith retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 52% | 47% | D+4.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 46% | D+4.1 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 752 LV | 54% | 40% | D+12.4 |
| Trafalgar Group538 grade 0.7 | 10/17/2026 | 1,079 LV | 48% | 45% | D+5.1 |
| SurveyUSA538 grade 2.8 | 10/14/2026 | 718 LV | 45% | 42% | D+4.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Minnesota governor's race
- Polling average: D+12.4 across 9 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+17.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+8.7 (partisan lean D+3, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Klobuchar | Demuth | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 56% | 43% | D+12.7 |
| State Navigateunrated | 10/29/2026 | 806 LV | 52% | 42% | D+12.8 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 752 LV | 56% | 38% | D+16.4 |
| SurveyUSA538 grade 2.8 | 10/14/2026 | 718 LV | 48% | 41% | D+8.4 |
| Mason-Dixon538 grade 2.6 | 10/12/2026 | 800 LV | 50% | 41% | D+10.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Minnesota House races
Minnesota has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 4 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 4.2 Democratic and 3.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-1Jake Johnson vs. Brad Finstad | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | Lean R | R+5.5 | 16% |
| MN-2Matt Little vs. Eric Pratt | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | Likely D | D+16.0 | >99% |
| MN-3Kelly Morrison vs. Tyler Bass | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| MN-4Betty McCollum vs. Paul Wikstrom | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| MN-5Ilhan Omar vs. John Nagel | Ilhan Omar | John Nagel | Safe D | D+53.5 | 100% |
| MN-6Doug Chapin vs. Tom Emmer | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| MN-7Erik Osberg vs. Michelle Fischbach | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| MN-8Trina Swanson vs. Pete Stauber | Trina Swanson | Pete Stauber | Likely R | R+14.2 | 1% |
District polls: MN-1: adjusted polling average D+3.4 (1 poll, newest 10/13/2026), 6% of the projection.
Open Minnesota on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.