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Rhode Island 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Rhode Island, Jack Reed (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Helena Foulkes (D) had a 99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 2.0 of Rhode Island's 2 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Rhode Island on the interactive map →Rhode Island Senate race
- Polling average: D+28.3 across 5 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 40% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 29%
- Fundamentals: D+26.5 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 31%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Reed | McKay | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 753 LV | 63% | 32% | D+29.4 |
| Embold Researchunrated | 10/20/2026 | 815 LV | 55% | 32% | D+24.5 |
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/13/2026 | 800 LV | 59% | 25% | D+33.0 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 9/24/2026 | 598 LV | 53% | 33% | D+18.4 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 8/26/2026 | 750 LV | 51% | 31% | D+18.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Rhode Island governor's race
- Polling average: D+24.0 across 3 polls (newest 10/20/2026) — 11% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 37%
- Fundamentals: D+15.7 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 52%
Incumbent Dan McKee lost the Democratic primary
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Foulkes | Guckian | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embold Researchunrated | 10/20/2026 | 815 LV | 39% | 17% | D+23.5 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 9/24/2026 | 598 LV | 44% | 17% | D+25.4 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 8/27/2026 | 750 LV | 40% | 15% | D+23.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Rhode Island House races
Rhode Island has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RI-1Gabe Amo vs. Kellie Keenan | Gabe Amo | Kellie Keenan | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
| RI-2Seth Magaziner vs. Vic Mellor | Seth Magaziner | Vic Mellor | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
Open Rhode Island on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.