PoliGovPoliGov › 2026 Forecast › Connecticut
Connecticut 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Connecticut, Ned Lamont (D) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 5.0 of Connecticut's 5 House seats (they held 5 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Connecticut on the interactive map →Connecticut governor's race
- Polling average: D+16.0 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+20.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+20.7 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Lamont | Fazio | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 811 LV | 54% | 41% | D+11.4 |
| GreatBlue Research538 grade 2.0 | 10/19/2026 | LV | 62% | 34% | D+25.3 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 10/16/2026 | LV | 57% | 34% | D+22.3 |
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/15/2026 | 800 LV | 51% | 38% | D+12.0 |
| Quinnipiac538 grade 2.8 | 10/14/2026 | 1,225 LV | 58% | 38% | D+18.7 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Connecticut has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Connecticut House races
Connecticut has 5 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 5.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-1Luke Bronin vs. Amy Chai | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | Safe D | D+27.7 | >99% |
| CT-2Joe Courtney vs. George Austin | Joe Courtney | George Austin | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| CT-3Rosa DeLauro vs. Chris Lancia | Rosa DeLauro | Chris Lancia | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| CT-4Jim Himes vs. Michael Goldstein | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| CT-5Jahana Hayes vs. Chris Shea | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | Safe D | D+18.7 | >99% |
Open Connecticut on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.