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Indiana 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Indiana, Democrats were projected to win about 2.0 of Indiana's 9 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Indiana on the interactive map →Indiana has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Indiana does not elect a governor in 2026.
Indiana House races
Indiana has 9 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 7. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 7.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN-1Frank Mrvan vs. Barb Regnitz | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | Likely D | D+15.0 | >99% |
| IN-2Jamee Decio vs. Rudy Yakym | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | Safe R | R+21.7 | <1% |
| IN-3Kelly Thompson vs. Marlin Stutzman | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| IN-4Drew Cox vs. Jim Baird | Drew Cox | Jim Baird | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| IN-5J. D. Ford vs. Victoria Spartz | J. D. Ford | Victoria Spartz | Likely R | R+9.6 | 5% |
| IN-6Cinde Wirth vs. Jefferson Shreve | Cinde Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| IN-7André Carson vs. Patrick McAuley | André Carson | Patrick McAuley | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| IN-8Mary Allen vs. Mark Messmer | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| IN-9Brad Meyer vs. Erin Houchin | Brad Meyer | Erin Houchin | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
District polls: IN-5: adjusted polling average D+0.9 (1 poll, newest 10/27/2026), 8% of the projection.
Open Indiana on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.