PoliGovPoliGov › 2026 Forecast › New Mexico
New Mexico 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New Mexico, Ben Ray Luján (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Deb Haaland (D) had a 96% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 2.9 of New Mexico's 3 House seats (they held 3 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New Mexico on the interactive map →New Mexico Senate race
- Polling average: D+19.5 across 3 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 21% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+21.2, the average of 12 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: D+18.5 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 45%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Luján | Marker | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 60% | 40% | D+19.7 |
| SurveyUSA538 grade 2.8 | 10/05/2026 | 567 LV | 54% | 36% | D+19.4 |
| RMG Research538 grade 2.3 | 9/01/2026 | 516 LV | 53% | 38% | D+16.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
New Mexico governor's race
- Polling average: D+7.6 across 5 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 28% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+17.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 32%
- Fundamentals: D+10.1 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 40%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Haaland | Hull | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 54% | 46% | D+7.7 |
| Research & Polling538 grade 2.1 | 10/11/2026 | 1,125 LV | 49% | 42% | D+7.2 |
| SurveyUSA538 grade 2.8 | 10/05/2026 | 567 LV | 47% | 41% | D+7.4 |
| Research & Polling538 grade 2.1 | 8/30/2026 | 516 LV | 49% | 43% | D+6.2 |
| BSP Research538 grade 2.0 | 8/21/2026 | 800 RV | 41% | 24% | D+16.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
New Mexico House races
New Mexico has 3 congressional districts. Democrats hold 3 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.9 Democratic and 0.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-1Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi Okpareke | Melanie Stansbury | Didi Okpareke | Safe D | D+23.5 | >99% |
| NM-2Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg Cunningham | Gabe Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | Likely D | D+10.0 | 96% |
| NM-3Teresa Leger Fernández vs. Martin Zamora | Teresa Leger Fernández | Martin Zamora | Likely D | D+16.9 | 99% |
District polls: NM-2: adjusted polling average D+4.2 (1 poll, newest 10/11/2026), 4% of the projection.
Open New Mexico on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.