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Michigan 2026 Election Forecast

Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (D) had a 86% chance of winning the Senate race, Jocelyn Benson (D) had a 95% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 8.0 of Michigan's 13 House seats (they held 6 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.

See Michigan on the interactive map →

Michigan Senate race

Abdul El-SayedDemocrat
86%
Mike RogersRepublican
14%
RatingLean D
Projected marginD+5.4
80% rangeR+1.0 to D+11.9
Seat now held byDemocrats

Open seat (Peters retiring)

Recent polls

PollsterDateSampleEl-SayedRogersAdjusted
Trafalgar Group538 grade 0.711/02/20261,087 LV47%46%D+3.1
ResearchCo538 grade 2.411/01/2026450 LV51%48%D+2.7
Siena College538 grade 3.011/01/20261,011 LV53%42%D+9.4
YouGov538 grade 3.011/01/20262,093 LV51%47%D+3.3
Data for Progress538 grade 2.610/30/2026622 LV50%46%D+3.7

Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).

All polls: 270toWin

Open on the Senate forecast map →

Michigan governor's race

Jocelyn BensonDemocrat
95%
John JamesRepublican
5%
RatingLean D
Projected marginD+8.7
Seat now held byDemocrats

Recent polls

PollsterDateSampleBensonJamesAdjusted
ResearchCo538 grade 2.411/01/2026450 LV56%43%D+12.7
Siena College538 grade 3.011/01/20261,011 LV52%39%D+11.4
YouGov538 grade 3.011/01/20262,093 LV52%46%D+5.3
Data for Progress538 grade 2.610/30/2026622 LV52%43%D+8.7
Michigan State Univ.538 grade 2.510/29/20261,383 LV51%42%D+8.6

Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).

All polls: 270toWin

Open on the governor forecast map →

Michigan House races

Michigan has 13 congressional districts. Democrats hold 6 and Republicans 7. The model projects about 8.0 Democratic and 5.0 Republican seats.

DistrictDemocratRepublicanRatingMarginDem win
MI-1Callie Barr vs. Jack BergmanCallie BarrJack BergmanSafe RR+18.3<1%
MI-2Ben Ambrose vs. John MoolenaarBen AmbroseJohn MoolenaarSafe RR+24.1<1%
MI-3Hillary Scholten vs. Terri DeBoerHillary ScholtenTerri DeBoerSafe DD+19.9>99%
MI-4 FlipSean McCann vs. Bill HuizengaSean McCannBill HuizengaToss-upD+0.352%
MI-5Christian Vukasovich vs. Tim WalbergChristian VukasovichTim WalbergSafe RR+21.7<1%
MI-6Debbie Dingell vs. Heather SmileyDebbie DingellHeather SmileySafe DD+29.5100%
MI-7 FlipWilliam Lawrence vs. Tom BarrettWilliam LawrenceTom BarrettLean DD+5.382%
MI-8Kristen McDonald Rivet vs. Thomas SmithKristen McDonald RivetThomas SmithLikely DD+14.399%
MI-9Ray Pooley vs. Lisa McClainRay PooleyLisa McClainSafe RR+25.3<1%
MI-10 FlipChristina Hines vs. Mike Bouchard Jr.Christina HinesMike Bouchard Jr.Tilt DD+2.265%
MI-11Jeremy Moss vs. Ethan BakerJeremy MossEthan BakerSafe DD+24.1>99%
MI-12Rashida Tlaib vs. James HooperRashida TlaibJames HooperSafe DD+40.3100%
MI-13Donavan McKinney vs. T. P. NykoriakDonavan McKinneyT. P. NykoriakSafe DD+39.7100%

Open Michigan on the House forecast map →

Other states

How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.