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Ohio 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) had a 59% chance of winning the special Senate race, Amy Acton (D) had a 71% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 5.4 of Ohio's 15 House seats (they held 5 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Ohio on the interactive map →Ohio special Senate race
- Polling average: D+2.2 across 10 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.0 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Special election (Vance seat); Husted appointed Jan. 2025
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Brown | Husted | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group538 grade 0.7 | 11/02/2026 | 1,092 LV | 47% | 45% | D+4.1 |
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 49% | 48% | D+0.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 47% | D+3.1 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 717 LV | 49% | 44% | D+3.4 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,090 LV | 50% | 48% | D+1.3 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Ohio governor's race
- Polling average: D+3.5 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+4.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+2.5 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Acton | Ramaswamy | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 53% | 46% | D+6.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,200 LV | 49% | 46% | D+4.1 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 717 LV | 49% | 43% | D+4.4 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,090 LV | 52% | 46% | D+5.3 |
| ActiVoteunrated | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 51% | 49% | D+2.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Ohio House races
Ohio has 15 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 10. The model projects about 5.4 Democratic and 9.6 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-1Greg Landsman vs. Eric Conroy | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | Likely D | D+9.9 | 96% |
| OH-2Jennifer Mazzuckelli vs. David Taylor | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| OH-3Joyce Beatty vs. Cleophus Dulaney | Joyce Beatty | Cleophus Dulaney | Safe D | D+40.3 | 100% |
| OH-4Joshua Kolasinski vs. Jim Jordan | Joshua Kolasinski | Jim Jordan | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| OH-5Brian Shaver vs. Bob Latta | Brian Shaver | Bob Latta | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
| OH-6Elizabeth Kirtley vs. Michael Rulli | Elizabeth Kirtley | Michael Rulli | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| OH-7Brian Poindexter vs. Max Miller | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | Toss-up | R+1.0 | 43% |
| OH-8Vanessa Enoch vs. Warren Davidson | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | Likely R | R+16.2 | <1% |
| OH-9Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | Tilt D | D+3.0 | 70% |
| OH-10Kristina Knickerbocker vs. Mike Turner | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | Lean R | R+5.5 | 17% |
| OH-11Shontel Brown vs. Mike Kirchner | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | Safe D | D+48.7 | 100% |
| OH-12Jerrad Christian vs. Troy Balderson | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| OH-13Emilia Sykes vs. Carey Coleman | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | Likely D | D+16.4 | >99% |
| OH-14Maria Jukic vs. David Joyce | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| OH-15Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | Lean R | R+5.8 | 16% |
District polls: OH-1: adjusted polling average D+6.8 (2 polls, newest 10/24/2026), 7% of the projection.
Open Ohio on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
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- New Mexico
- New York
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- North Dakota
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.