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New Jersey 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New Jersey, Cory Booker (D) had a >99% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats were projected to win about 9.9 of New Jersey's 12 House seats (they held 9 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New Jersey on the interactive map →New Jersey Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: D+18.5 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the Senate forecast map →
New Jersey does not elect a governor in 2026.
New Jersey House races
New Jersey has 12 congressional districts. Democrats hold 9 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 9.9 Democratic and 2.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-1Donald Norcross vs. Damon Galdo | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| NJ-2Zack Mullock vs. Jeff Van Drew | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | Lean R | R+8.6 | 7% |
| NJ-3Herb Conaway vs. Michael McGuire | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | Safe D | D+21.1 | >99% |
| NJ-4Rachel Peace vs. Chris Smith | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | Safe R | R+22.9 | <1% |
| NJ-5Josh Gottheimer vs. Sean Kirrane | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
| NJ-6Frank Pallone vs. Hillary Herzig | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | Safe D | D+21.1 | >99% |
| NJ-7 FlipRebecca Bennett vs. Thomas Kean Jr. | Rebecca Bennett | Thomas Kean Jr. | Lean D | D+7.1 | 89% |
| NJ-8Rob Menendez vs. — | Rob Menendez | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| NJ-9Nellie Pou vs. Rosie Pino | Nellie Pou | Rosie Pino | Safe D | D+17.0 | >99% |
| NJ-10LaMonica McIver vs. Carmen Bucco | LaMonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | Safe D | D+47.5 | 100% |
| NJ-11Analilia Mejia vs. Joe Hathaway | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | Safe D | D+21.1 | >99% |
| NJ-12Adam Hamawy vs. Gregg Mele | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | Safe D | D+28.9 | 100% |
District polls: NJ-7: adjusted polling average D+5.0 (1 poll, newest 9/14/2026), 1% of the projection.
Open New Jersey on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.