PoliGovPoliGov › 2026 Forecast › Iowa
Iowa 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Iowa, Ashley Hinson (R) had a 59% chance of winning the Senate race, Rob Sand (D) had a 82% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 2.1 of Iowa's 4 House seats (they held 0 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Iowa on the interactive map →Iowa Senate race
- Polling average: R+0.4 across 11 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+1.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.5 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Ernst retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Turek | Hinson | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayhouseunrated | 11/02/2026 | 601 LV | 46% | 48% | R+1.1 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 705 LV | 48% | 47% | R+0.6 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,020 LV | 50% | 49% | D+0.3 |
| co/efficient538 grade 1.1 | 10/29/2026 | 1,020 LV | 46% | 48% | Even |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 403 LV | 45% | 43% | D+1.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Iowa governor's race
- Polling average: D+6.3 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+6.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+3.9 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Sand | Lahn | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 705 LV | 51% | 43% | D+6.4 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,020 LV | 53% | 46% | D+6.3 |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 403 LV | 50% | 46% | D+3.9 |
| New River / GSGunrated | 10/21/2026 | 602 LV | 54% | 43% | D+9.8 |
| National Public Affairsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 678 LV | 50% | 45% | D+5.5 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Iowa House races
Iowa has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 2.1 Democratic and 1.9 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-1 FlipChristina Bohannan vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Tilt D | D+2.9 | 70% |
| IA-2 FlipLindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | Toss-up | D+1.4 | 60% |
| IA-3 FlipSarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | Tilt D | D+4.3 | 78% |
| IA-4David Dawson vs. Chris McGowan | David Dawson | Chris McGowan | Safe R | R+22.3 | <1% |
District polls: IA-1: adjusted polling average D+5.0 (1 poll, newest 7/24/2026), 0% of the projection; IA-2: adjusted polling average D+2.0 (1 poll, newest 10/22/2026), 7% of the projection.
Open Iowa on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.