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Vermont 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Vermont, Phil Scott (R) had a 77% chance of winning the governor's race, and the state's one House seat was rated Safe D, according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Vermont on the interactive map →Vermont governor's race
- Polling average: D+3.6 across 5 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 39% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+9.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 29%
- Fundamentals: R+10.0 (partisan lean D+17, national environment, incumbency) — 32%
Phil Scott is a popular Republican incumbent in a deep-blue state; fundamentals understate him
Set to R+10 instead of the partisan-lean estimate: Phil Scott won in 2024 by about 50 points in a D+17 state
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Janoo | Scott | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 1,172 LV | 51% | 43% | D+6.4 |
| State Navigateunrated | 10/27/2026 | 1,752 LV | 46% | 49% | R+0.2 |
| State Navigateunrated | 10/07/2026 | 948 LV | 43% | 46% | R+0.2 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 9/24/2026 | 835 LV | 49% | 43% | D+4.4 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 7/21/2026 | 954 LV | 33% | 44% | R+12.6 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Vermont has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Vermont House races
Vermont elects one at-large representative.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT-ALBecca Balint vs. Gerald Malloy | Becca Balint | Gerald Malloy | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
Open Vermont on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.