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South Carolina 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In South Carolina, Darline Graham (R) had a 75% chance of winning the Senate race, Alan Wilson (R) had a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.2 of South Carolina's 7 House seats (they held 1 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See South Carolina on the interactive map →South Carolina Senate race
- Polling average: R+1.3 across 9 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+4.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+9.5 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Appointed incumbent Darline Graham, nominated in runoff
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Andrews | Graham | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group538 grade 0.7 | 11/02/2026 | 1,091 LV | 46% | 48% | D+0.1 |
| East Carolina Univ.538 grade 2.6 | 10/29/2026 | 955 LV | 47% | 51% | R+2.4 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 707 LV | 48% | 48% | R+1.6 |
| The Citadelunrated | 10/27/2026 | 890 LV | 39% | 43% | R+3.2 |
| Targoz Market Research538 grade 1.8 | 10/27/2026 | 895 LV | 46% | 47% | R+0.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
South Carolina governor's race
- Polling average: R+10.1 across 4 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 55% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+18.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 25%
- Fundamentals: R+6.7 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 20%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Johnson | Wilson | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group538 grade 0.7 | 11/02/2026 | 1,091 LV | 39% | 54% | R+12.9 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 707 LV | 44% | 51% | R+8.6 |
| The Citadelunrated | 10/27/2026 | 890 LV | 31% | 42% | R+10.2 |
| Targoz Market Research538 grade 1.8 | 10/27/2026 | 895 LV | 41% | 51% | R+9.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
South Carolina House races
South Carolina has 7 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 1.2 Democratic and 5.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC-1Nancy Lacore vs. Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | Lean R | R+4.5 | 21% |
| SC-2Zyon Khalifa vs. Joe Wilson | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | Likely R | R+15.3 | <1% |
| SC-3Eunice Lehmacher vs. Sheri Biggs | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | Safe R | R+31.3 | 0% |
| SC-4Courtney McClain vs. William Timmons | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| SC-5Mallory Dittmer vs. Wes Climer | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| SC-6Jim Clyburn vs. John Peterson | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| SC-7John Vincent vs. Russell Fry | John Vincent | Russell Fry | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
Open South Carolina on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.