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Nebraska 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R) had a 89% chance of winning the Senate race, Jim Pillen (R) had a 96% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.0 of Nebraska's 3 House seats (they held 0 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Nebraska on the interactive map →Nebraska Senate race
- Polling average: R+2.6 across 8 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+7.8, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+17.8 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Independent Dan Osborn (no Democratic nominee); says he will not caucus with either party
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Osborn | Ricketts | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayhouseunrated | 11/02/2026 | 534 LV | 46% | 50% | R+3.1 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,979 LV | 49% | 49% | R+0.7 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/31/2026 | 809 LV | 41% | 46% | R+6.6 |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 407 LV | 46% | 47% | R+1.1 |
| National Public Affairsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 800 LV | 43% | 46% | R+2.5 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Nebraska governor's race
- Polling average: R+7.3 across 7 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+11.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+14.5 (partisan lean R+10, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Walz | Pillen | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,979 LV | 47% | 50% | R+3.7 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/31/2026 | 809 LV | 40% | 53% | R+14.6 |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 407 LV | 40% | 47% | R+7.1 |
| National Public Affairsunrated | 10/20/2026 | 800 LV | 40% | 44% | R+3.5 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 10/06/2026 | 1,808 LV | 43% | 44% | R+1.7 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Nebraska House races
Nebraska has 3 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 2.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-1Chris Backemeyer vs. Mike Flood | Chris Backemeyer | Mike Flood | Likely R | R+10.2 | 4% |
| NE-2 FlipDenise Powell vs. Brinker Harding | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | Likely D | D+14.3 | 99% |
| NE-3Becky Stille vs. Adrian Smith | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | Safe R | R+38.5 | 0% |
District polls: NE-2: adjusted polling average D+11.4 (2 polls, newest 10/20/2026), 5% of the projection.
Open Nebraska on the House forecast map →
Other states
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- Wisconsin
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.