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South Dakota 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In South Dakota, Mike Rounds (R) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Larry Rhoden (R) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and the state's one House seat was rated Safe R, according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See South Dakota on the interactive map →South Dakota Senate race
- Polling average: R+12.6 across 2 polls (newest 10/22/2026) — 21% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+21.2, the average of 12 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: R+27.8 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 45%
No Democratic nominee; independent Brian Bengs
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Bengs | Rounds | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/22/2026 | 803 LV | 42% | 50% | R+9.0 |
| Quantus Insightsunrated | 10/21/2026 | 657 LV | 37% | 59% | R+19.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
South Dakota governor's race
- Polling average: R+19.0 across 2 polls (newest 10/22/2026) — 21% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: R+21.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 45%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Ahlers | Rhoden | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/22/2026 | 803 LV | 38% | 56% | R+19.0 |
| Mason-Dixon538 grade 2.6 | 10/19/2026 | 500 RV | 36% | 56% | R+19.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
South Dakota House races
South Dakota elects one at-large representative.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-ALNikki Gronli vs. Marty Jackley | Nikki Gronli | Marty Jackley | Safe R | R+22.3 | <1% |
Open South Dakota on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.