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Illinois 2026 Election Forecast

Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026

In Illinois, Juliana Stratton (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, JB Pritzker (D) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 14.0 of Illinois's 17 House seats (they held 14 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.

See Illinois on the interactive map →

Illinois Senate race

Juliana StrattonDemocrat
>99%
Don TracyRepublican
<1%
RatingSafe D
Projected marginD+18.3
80% rangeD+10.5 to D+26.0
Seat now held byDemocrats

Open seat (Durbin retiring)

Recent polls

PollsterDateSampleStrattonTracyAdjusted
ResearchCo538 grade 2.411/02/2026450 LV56%43%D+12.7
ActiVoteunrated10/30/2026400 LV56%44%D+12.4
ActiVoteunrated10/20/2026400 LV59%42%D+17.4
Public Policy Polling538 grade 1.410/06/2026569 RV49%36%D+13.0

Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).

All polls: 270toWin

Open on the Senate forecast map →

Illinois governor's race

JB PritzkerDemocrat · incumbent
>99%
Darren BaileyRepublican
<1%
RatingSafe D
Projected marginD+19.9
Seat now held byDemocrats

Recent polls

PollsterDateSamplePritzkerBaileyAdjusted
ResearchCo538 grade 2.411/02/2026450 LV60%38%D+21.7
ActiVoteunrated10/31/2026400 LV59%41%D+18.4
ActiVoteunrated10/22/2026400 LV59%41%D+18.4
Public Policy Polling538 grade 1.410/06/2026569 RV54%34%D+20.0

Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).

All polls: 270toWin

Open on the governor forecast map →

Illinois House races

Illinois has 17 congressional districts. Democrats hold 14 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 14.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.

DistrictDemocratRepublicanRatingMarginDem win
IL-1Jonathan Jackson vs. Christian MaxwellJonathan JacksonChristian MaxwellSafe DD+36.7100%
IL-2Donna Miller vs. Michael NoackDonna MillerMichael NoackSafe DD+34.9100%
IL-3Delia Ramirez vs. Angel OakleyDelia RamirezAngel OakleySafe DD+35.5100%
IL-4Patty Garcia vs. Lupe CastilloPatty GarciaLupe CastilloSafe DD+33.7100%
IL-5Mike Quigley vs. Tommy HansonMike QuigleyTommy HansonSafe DD+37.9100%
IL-6Sean Casten vs. Niki ConfortiSean CastenNiki ConfortiSafe DD+18.7>99%
IL-7La Shawn Ford vs. Chad KoppieLa Shawn FordChad KoppieSafe DD+54.1100%
IL-8Melissa Bean vs. Jennifer DavisMelissa BeanJennifer DavisSafe DD+19.3>99%
IL-9Daniel Biss vs. John EllesonDaniel BissJohn EllesonSafe DD+36.1100%
IL-10Brad Schneider vs. Carl LambrechtBrad SchneiderCarl LambrechtSafe DD+29.5100%
IL-11Bill Foster vs. Jeff WalterBill FosterJeff WalterSafe DD+22.3>99%
IL-12Julie Fortier vs. Mike BostJulie FortierMike BostSafe RR+32.50%
IL-13Nikki Budzinski vs. Jeff WilsonNikki BudzinskiJeff WilsonSafe DD+21.1>99%
IL-14Lauren Underwood vs. James MarterLauren UnderwoodJames MarterSafe DD+18.7>99%
IL-15Jennifer Todd vs. Mary MillerJennifer ToddMary MillerSafe RR+30.10%
IL-16Paul Nolley vs. Darin LaHoodPaul NolleyDarin LaHoodSafe RR+19.3<1%
IL-17Eric Sorensen vs. Dillan VancilEric SorensenDillan VancilSafe DD+18.7>99%

Open Illinois on the House forecast map →

Other states

How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.