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Arizona 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Arizona, Katie Hobbs (D) had a 94% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 4.9 of Arizona's 9 House seats (they held 3 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Arizona on the interactive map →Arizona governor's race
- Polling average: D+9.7 across 10 polls (newest 10/30/2026) — 48% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+9.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 27%
- Fundamentals: D+6.7 (partisan lean R+2, national environment, incumbency) — 25%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Hobbs | Biggs | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights538 grade 2.4 | 10/30/2026 | 511 LV | 51% | 45% | D+7.5 |
| HighGround Inc.538 grade 1.8 | 10/27/2026 | 400 LV | 52% | 39% | D+11.1 |
| BSP Research538 grade 2.0 | 10/19/2026 | 1,300 RV | 47% | 34% | D+12.1 |
| Wick538 grade 1.4 | 10/13/2026 | 1,513 LV | 49% | 43% | D+6.7 |
| HighGround Inc.538 grade 1.8 | 10/13/2026 | 400 LV | 51% | 34% | D+15.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Arizona has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Arizona House races
Arizona has 9 congressional districts. Democrats hold 3 and Republicans 6. The model projects about 4.9 Democratic and 4.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-1 FlipAmish Shah vs. Jay Feely | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | Lean D | D+6.9 | 89% |
| AZ-2Jonathan Nez vs. Eli Crane | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | Lean R | R+6.3 | 13% |
| AZ-3Yassamin Ansari vs. — | Yassamin Ansari | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| AZ-4Greg Stanton vs. Zuhdi Jasser | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| AZ-5Elizabeth Lee vs. Mark Lamb | Elizabeth Lee | Mark Lamb | Likely R | R+16.6 | <1% |
| AZ-6 FlipJoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | Lean D | D+6.8 | 88% |
| AZ-7Adelita Grijalva vs. Daniel Butierez | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| AZ-8Bernadette Greene-Placentia vs. Abraham Hamadeh | Bernadette Greene-Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | Likely R | R+15.1 | <1% |
| AZ-9Dani Sterbinsky vs. Paul Gosar | Dani Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
District polls: AZ-1: adjusted polling average D+3.2 (2 polls, newest 10/29/2026), 11% of the projection; AZ-2: adjusted polling average D+1.1 (1 poll, newest 10/22/2026), 7% of the projection.
Open Arizona on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.