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Kentucky 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Kentucky, Andy Barr (R) was all but certain to win the Senate race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.3 of Kentucky's 6 House seats (they held 1 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Kentucky on the interactive map →Kentucky Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: R+22.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open seat (McConnell retiring)
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Kentucky does not elect a governor in 2026.
Kentucky House races
Kentucky has 6 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 5. The model projects about 1.3 Democratic and 4.7 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-1Drew Williams vs. James Comer | Drew Williams | James Comer | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| KY-2Megan Wingfield vs. Brett Guthrie | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | Safe R | R+30.1 | 0% |
| KY-3Morgan McGarvey vs. Maria Rodriquez | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriquez | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| KY-4Melissa Strange vs. Ed Gallrein | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | Safe R | R+25.9 | <1% |
| KY-5Ned Pillersdorf vs. Hal Rogers | Ned Pillersdorf | Hal Rogers | Safe R | R+44.5 | 0% |
| KY-6Zach Dembo vs. Ralph Alvarado | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | Tilt R | R+2.2 | 34% |
District polls: KY-6: adjusted polling average D+7.6 (2 polls, newest 10/08/2026), 7% of the projection.
Open Kentucky on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.