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Maine 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Maine, Troy Jackson (D) had a 85% chance of winning the Senate race, Hannah Pingree (D) had a 98% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.4 of Maine's 2 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Maine on the interactive map →Maine Senate race
- Polling average: D+4.3 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+3.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+11.5 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Jackson | Collins | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 1,654 LV | 54% | 45% | D+7.4 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 714 LV | 51% | 45% | D+4.4 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,503 LV | 52% | 47% | D+4.3 |
| Data for Progress538 grade 2.6 | 10/30/2026 | 652 LV | 50% | 45% | D+4.7 |
| CNN / SSRS538 grade 2.8 | 10/29/2026 | 783 LV | 49% | 45% | D+2.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Maine governor's race
- Polling average: D+9.8 across 15 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+18.2, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+10.1 (partisan lean D+4, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Independent Rick Bennett also on the ballot
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Pingree | Charles | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 1,503 LV | 53% | 45% | D+7.3 |
| Univ. of New Hampshire538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 1,654 LV | 51% | 40% | D+9.4 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 714 LV | 49% | 37% | D+10.4 |
| Data for Progress538 grade 2.6 | 10/30/2026 | 652 LV | 49% | 37% | D+11.7 |
| CNN / SSRS538 grade 2.8 | 10/29/2026 | 783 LV | 53% | 39% | D+12.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Maine House races
Maine has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 1.4 Democratic and 0.6 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-1Chellie Pingree vs. Ronald Russell | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | Safe D | D+28.3 | 100% |
| ME-2 FlipMatthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePage | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | Tilt R | R+1.7 | 37% |
District polls: ME-2: adjusted polling average R+5.3 (2 polls, newest 11/01/2026), 19% of the projection.
Open Maine on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.