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Alabama 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Alabama, Barry Moore (R) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Tommy Tuberville (R) had a 99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.2 of Alabama's 7 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Alabama on the interactive map →Alabama Senate race
- Polling average: R+15.6 across 4 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 26% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 33%
- Fundamentals: R+22.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 41%
Open seat (Tuberville running for governor)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Wess | Moore | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling538 grade 2.4 | 10/28/2026 | 695 LV | 40% | 48% | R+12.8 |
| The Alabama Pollunrated | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 35% | 56% | R+19.5 |
| RMG Research538 grade 2.3 | 10/01/2026 | 800 RV | 33% | 54% | R+20.0 |
| yes. every kid. foundation.unrated | 8/04/2026 | 601 LV | 32% | 47% | R+15.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Alabama governor's race
- Polling average: R+9.5 across 5 polls (newest 10/28/2026) — 34% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+19.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 31%
- Fundamentals: R+16.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 36%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Jones | Tuberville | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling538 grade 2.4 | 10/28/2026 | 695 LV | 45% | 48% | R+7.8 |
| Cygnal538 grade 2.1 | 10/20/2026 | 500 LV | 40% | 51% | R+10.6 |
| The Alabama Pollunrated | 10/20/2026 | 600 LV | 39% | 51% | R+10.5 |
| RMG Research538 grade 2.3 | 10/01/2026 | 800 RV | 37% | 50% | R+12.0 |
| yes. every kid. foundation.unrated | 8/04/2026 | 601 LV | 41% | 49% | R+8.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Alabama House races
Alabama has 7 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 4 (1 vacant or new). The model projects about 1.2 Democratic and 5.8 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-1Clyde Jones Jr. vs. Jerry Carl | Clyde Jones Jr. | Jerry Carl | Safe R | R+24.7 | <1% |
| AL-2 FlipShomari Figures vs. Rhett Marques | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | Tilt R | R+4.4 | 21% |
| AL-3Lee McInnis vs. Mike Rogers | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| AL-4Amanda Pusczek vs. Robert Aderholt | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | Safe R | R+45.7 | 0% |
| AL-5Andrew Sneed vs. Dale Strong | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| AL-6Maurice Mercer vs. Gary Palmer | Maurice Mercer | Gary Palmer | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| AL-7Terri Sewell vs. Ammie Akin | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
District polls: AL-2: adjusted polling average R+2.0 (1 poll, newest 10/29/2026), 13% of the projection.
Open Alabama on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.