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Nevada 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Nevada, Joe Lombardo (R) had a 54% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 3.1 of Nevada's 4 House seats (they held 3 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Nevada on the interactive map →Nevada governor's race
- Polling average: D+0.9 across 3 polls (newest 10/30/2026) — 21% of the projection
- Expert ratings: Even, the average of 8 forecasters — 34%
- Fundamentals: R+1.9 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 45%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Ford | Lombardo | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights538 grade 2.4 | 10/30/2026 | 487 LV | 47% | 47% | D+1.5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights538 grade 2.4 | 10/06/2026 | 708 LV | 40% | 42% | R+0.5 |
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 9/10/2026 | 680 LV | 44% | 42% | D+1.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Nevada has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Nevada House races
Nevada has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 3 and Republicans 1. The model projects about 3.1 Democratic and 0.9 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV-1Dina Titus vs. Carrie Buck | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | Likely D | D+14.4 | 99% |
| NV-2Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs. David Flippo | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | Lean R | R+6.1 | 14% |
| NV-3Susie Lee vs. Martin O'Donnell | Susie Lee | Martin O'Donnell | Likely D | D+14.1 | 99% |
| NV-4Steven Horsford vs. Cody Whipple | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | Likely D | D+15.3 | >99% |
Open Nevada on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.