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North Carolina 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In North Carolina, Roy Cooper (D) had a 98% chance of winning the Senate race, and Democrats were projected to win about 4.5 of North Carolina's 14 House seats (they held 4 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See North Carolina on the interactive map →North Carolina Senate race
- Polling average: D+11.4 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+12.7, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+5.5 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Open seat (Tillis retiring)
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Cooper | Whatley | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina Univ.538 grade 2.6 | 11/01/2026 | 1,041 LV | 54% | 45% | D+10.6 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,130 LV | 55% | 44% | D+10.3 |
| High Point Univ.538 grade 2.5 | 10/28/2026 | 620 LV | 54% | 40% | D+13.1 |
| Quantus Insightsunrated | 10/26/2026 | 722 LV | 52% | 43% | D+11.9 |
| Harper Pollingunrated | 10/22/2026 | 600 LV | 49% | 39% | D+10.3 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
North Carolina does not elect a governor in 2026.
North Carolina House races
North Carolina has 14 congressional districts. Democrats hold 4 and Republicans 10. The model projects about 4.5 Democratic and 9.5 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-1Don Davis vs. Laurie Buckhout | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | Tilt D | D+2.7 | 68% |
| NC-2Deborah Ross vs. Eugene Douglass | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | Safe D | D+35.5 | 100% |
| NC-3Raymond Smith Jr. vs. Greg Murphy | Raymond Smith Jr. | Greg Murphy | Likely R | R+10.4 | 4% |
| NC-4Valerie Foushee vs. Max Ganorkar | Valerie Foushee | Max Ganorkar | Safe D | D+42.7 | 100% |
| NC-5Chuck Hubbard vs. Virginia Foxx | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | Likely R | R+15.4 | <1% |
| NC-6Cyril Jefferson vs. Addison McDowell | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | Safe R | R+17.6 | <1% |
| NC-7Kimberly Hardy vs. David Rouzer | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | Likely R | R+13.1 | 2% |
| NC-8Colby Watson vs. Mark Harris | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| NC-9Richard Ojeda vs. Richard Hudson | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | Likely R | R+12.5 | 2% |
| NC-10Ashley Bell vs. Pat Harrigan | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | Safe R | R+17.6 | <1% |
| NC-11 FlipJamie Ager vs. Jennifer Balkcom | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | Tilt D | D+3.0 | 71% |
| NC-12Alma Adams vs. Jack Codiga | Alma Adams | Jack Codiga | Safe D | D+43.9 | 100% |
| NC-13Paul Barringer vs. Brad Knott | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | Likely R | R+12.0 | 2% |
| NC-14Lakesha Womack vs. Tim Moore | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | Likely R | R+15.6 | <1% |
District polls: NC-11: adjusted polling average D+12.1 (1 poll, newest 10/22/2026), 8% of the projection.
Open North Carolina on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.