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Kansas 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Kansas, Roger Marshall (R) had a 52% chance of winning the Senate race, Ty Masterson (R) had a 75% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 1.0 of Kansas's 4 House seats (they held 1 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Kansas on the interactive map →Kansas Senate race
- Polling average: D+2.5 across 11 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: Even, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+11.5 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Hamilton | Marshall | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 736 LV | 49% | 44% | D+3.4 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,092 LV | 50% | 49% | D+0.3 |
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/30/2026 | 800 LV | 49% | 45% | D+3.0 |
| Wash. Post-Schar School538 grade 2.7 | 10/30/2026 | 801 LV | 52% | 43% | D+5.5 |
| CNN / SSRS538 grade 2.8 | 10/29/2026 | 838 LV | 49% | 45% | D+2.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Kansas governor's race
- Polling average: R+2.6 across 9 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+4.1, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+6.7 (partisan lean R+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Holscher | Masterson | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 736 LV | 48% | 47% | R+0.6 |
| YouGov538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 2,092 LV | 49% | 50% | R+1.7 |
| Emerson College538 grade 2.9 | 10/30/2026 | 800 LV | 46% | 50% | R+5.0 |
| Wash. Post-Schar School538 grade 2.7 | 10/30/2026 | 801 LV | 51% | 45% | D+2.5 |
| CNN / SSRS538 grade 2.8 | 10/29/2026 | 838 LV | 45% | 50% | R+6.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Kansas House races
Kansas has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 1 and Republicans 3. The model projects about 1.0 Democratic and 3.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-1Lauren Reinhold vs. Tracey Mann | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | Safe R | R+25.3 | <1% |
| KS-2Don Coover vs. Derek Schmidt | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | Likely R | R+15.2 | <1% |
| KS-3Sharice Davids vs. Eric Jenkins | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
| KS-4Katy Tyndell vs. Ron Estes | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | Safe R | R+20.5 | <1% |
Open Kansas on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.