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New York 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In New York, Kathy Hochul (D) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 20.0 of New York's 26 House seats (they held 19 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See New York on the interactive map →New York governor's race
- Polling average: D+12.7 across 10 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+19.5, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+20.7 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Hochul | Blakeman | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/01/2026 | 450 LV | 55% | 45% | D+9.7 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 10/28/2026 | 807 LV | 54% | 40% | D+12.4 |
| Marist Poll538 grade 2.9 | 10/28/2026 | 1,448 LV | 53% | 42% | D+13.4 |
| Quinnipiac538 grade 2.8 | 10/21/2026 | 1,167 LV | 55% | 41% | D+12.7 |
| Beacon Research538 grade 2.8 | 10/15/2026 | 820 RV | 53% | 31% | D+20.0 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
New York has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
New York House races
New York has 26 congressional districts. Democrats hold 19 and Republicans 7. The model projects about 20.0 Democratic and 6.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-1Chris Gallant vs. Nick LaLota | Chris Gallant | Nick LaLota | Lean R | R+8.3 | 8% |
| NY-2Patrick Halpin vs. Andrew Garbarino | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | Likely R | R+12.4 | 2% |
| NY-3Tom Suozzi vs. Mike LiPetri | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | Likely D | D+12.3 | 98% |
| NY-4Laura Gillen vs. Jeanine Driscoll | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | Likely D | D+15.4 | >99% |
| NY-5Gregory Meeks vs. George Marsh | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | Safe D | D+43.9 | 100% |
| NY-6Grace Meng vs. Joseph Chou | Grace Meng | Joseph Chou | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| NY-7Claire Valdez vs. Melvin Rivera | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | Safe D | D+43.3 | 100% |
| NY-8Hakeem Jeffries vs. Lewis Mizrahi | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | Safe D | D+43.9 | 100% |
| NY-9Yvette Clarke vs. Joel Azumah | Yvette Clarke | Joel Azumah | Safe D | D+41.5 | 100% |
| NY-10Brad Lander vs. Jennifer Moore | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | Safe D | D+51.7 | 100% |
| NY-11Michael DeCillis vs. Nicole Malliotakis | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| NY-12Micah Lasher vs. Caroline Shinkle | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | Safe D | D+52.9 | 100% |
| NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier vs. Jomo Williams | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Jomo Williams | Safe D | D+51.7 | 100% |
| NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs. Diamant Hysenaj | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | Safe D | D+37.9 | 100% |
| NY-15Ritchie Torres vs. Stylo Sapaskis | Ritchie Torres | Stylo Sapaskis | Safe D | D+47.5 | 100% |
| NY-16George Latimer vs. Joseph Cinquemani | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | Safe D | D+36.7 | 100% |
| NY-17 FlipCait Conley vs. Mike Lawler | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | Lean D | D+5.5 | 83% |
| NY-18Pat Ryan vs. Jacqueline Auringer | Pat Ryan | Jacqueline Auringer | Safe D | D+17.5 | >99% |
| NY-19Josh Riley vs. Peter Oberacker | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | Likely D | D+16.1 | >99% |
| NY-20Paul Tonko vs. Ralph Ambrosio | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| NY-21Blake Gendebien vs. Anthony Constantino | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | Likely R | R+9.0 | 6% |
| NY-22John Mannion vs. Kailee Buller | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| NY-23Aaron Gies vs. Nick Langworthy | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| NY-24Alissa Ellman vs. Claudia Tenney | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | Safe R | R+19.3 | <1% |
| NY-25Joseph Morelle vs. Virginia McIntyre | Joseph Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | Safe D | D+27.1 | >99% |
| NY-26Tim Kennedy vs. Dennis Hannon | Tim Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
District polls: NY-17: adjusted polling average D+0.9 (2 polls, newest 10/01/2026), 3% of the projection; NY-21: adjusted polling average D+1.9 (3 polls, newest 10/09/2026), 5% of the projection.
Open New York on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.