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Alaska 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Alaska, Mary Peltola (D) had a 53% chance of winning the Senate race, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) had a 69% chance of winning the governor's race, and the state's one House seat was rated Lean R, according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Alaska on the interactive map →Alaska Senate race
- Polling average: D+1.9 across 13 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.5, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+7.5 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Top-four primary with ranked-choice general; head-to-head polling used
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Peltola | Sullivan | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/02/2026 | 1,200 LV | 48% | 48% | D+1.1 |
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 610 LV | 48% | 46% | D+0.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research538 grade 1.9 | 10/30/2026 | 1,326 LV | 48% | 46% | D+1.4 |
| Data for Progress538 grade 2.6 | 10/20/2026 | 694 LV | 47% | 44% | D+2.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 10/11/2026 | 1,200 LV | 48% | 43% | D+6.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Alaska governor's race
- Polling average: D+2.6 across 8 polls (newest 11/01/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+6.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+3.9 (partisan lean R+6, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Top-four primary with ranked-choice general; three Republicans advanced, so Republican votes are pooled
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Kreiss-Tomkins | Wilson | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College538 grade 3.0 | 11/01/2026 | 610 LV | 42% | 37% | D+3.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research538 grade 1.9 | 10/26/2026 | 1,068 LV | 51% | 46.2% | D+4.2 |
| Data for Progress538 grade 2.6 | 10/20/2026 | 694 LV | 46% | 44.8% | D+0.9 |
| Alaska Survey Research538 grade 1.9 | 10/20/2026 | 1,568 LV | 50% | 46% | D+3.4 |
| Alaska Survey Research538 grade 1.9 | 10/06/2026 | 1,512 LV | 48% | 47% | D+0.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Alaska House races
Alaska elects one at-large representative.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-ALEric Hafner vs. Nick Begich III | Eric Hafner | Nick Begich III | Lean R | R+8.0 | 8% |
Open Alaska on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.