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Hawaii 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Hawaii, Josh Green (D) was all but certain to win the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 2.0 of Hawaii's 2 House seats (they held 2 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Hawaii on the interactive map →Hawaii governor's race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: D+27.7 (partisan lean D+13, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the governor forecast map →
Hawaii has no U.S. Senate race in 2026.
Hawaii House races
Hawaii has 2 congressional districts. Democrats hold 2 and Republicans 0. The model projects about 2.0 Democratic and 0.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-1Ed Case vs. Adriel Lam | Ed Case | Adriel Lam | Safe D | D+30.7 | 100% |
| HI-2Jill Tokuda vs. Brenton Awa | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | Safe D | D+29.5 | 100% |
Open Hawaii on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.