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Oregon 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Oregon, Jeff Merkley (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Tina Kotek (D) had a 96% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 5.0 of Oregon's 6 House seats (they held 5 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Oregon on the interactive map →Oregon Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: D+26.5 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Oregon governor's race
- Polling average: D+0.1 across 3 polls (newest 10/08/2026) — 10% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+7.1, the average of 8 forecasters — 37%
- Fundamentals: D+20.7 (partisan lean D+8, national environment, incumbency) — 53%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Kotek | Drazan | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research538 grade 2.1 | 10/08/2026 | 549 LV | 46% | 44% | D+1.9 |
| DHM Research538 grade 2.1 | 9/30/2026 | 915 LV | 46% | 47% | R+1.1 |
| DHM Research538 grade 2.1 | 9/15/2026 | 600 LV | 43% | 45% | R+2.1 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Oregon House races
Oregon has 6 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 1. The model projects about 5.0 Democratic and 1.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR-1Suzanne Bonamici vs. Barbara Kahl | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | Safe D | D+39.1 | 100% |
| OR-2Chris Beck vs. Cliff Bentz | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | Safe R | R+22.9 | <1% |
| OR-3Maxine Dexter vs. Loran Ayles | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | Safe D | D+43.9 | 100% |
| OR-4Val Hoyle vs. Monique DeSpain | Val Hoyle | Monique DeSpain | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
| OR-5Janelle Bynum vs. Patti Adair | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| OR-6Andrea Salinas vs. David Russ | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | Safe D | D+22.3 | >99% |
Open Oregon on the House forecast map →
Other states
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.