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Arkansas 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Arkansas, Tom Cotton (R) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) had a >99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 0.0 of Arkansas's 4 House seats (they held 0 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Arkansas on the interactive map →Arkansas Senate race
- Polling average: R+10.0 across 3 polls (newest 10/16/2026) — 6% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 38%
- Fundamentals: R+25.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 55%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Shoffner | Cotton | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College538 grade 0.9 | 10/16/2026 | 709 LV | 41% | 50% | R+10.3 |
| Hendrix College538 grade 0.9 | 8/20/2026 | 1,217 LV | 47% | 44% | D+1.7 |
| J.L. Partners538 grade 1.6 | 8/19/2026 | 803 LV | 35% | 51% | R+15.8 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Arkansas governor's race
- Polling average: R+19.5 across 2 polls (newest 10/16/2026) — 6% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+22.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 38%
- Fundamentals: R+21.5 (partisan lean R+15, national environment, incumbency) — 56%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Love | Sanders | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College538 grade 0.9 | 10/16/2026 | 709 LV | 32% | 51% | R+20.3 |
| Hendrix College538 grade 0.9 | 8/18/2026 | 1,217 LV | 40% | 45% | R+6.3 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Arkansas House races
Arkansas has 4 congressional districts. Democrats hold 0 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 0.0 Democratic and 4.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-1Terri Green vs. Rick Crawford | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | Safe R | R+33.7 | 0% |
| AR-2Chris Jones vs. French Hill | Chris Jones | French Hill | Likely R | R+10.9 | 3% |
| AR-3Robb Ryerse vs. Steve Womack | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | Safe R | R+21.7 | <1% |
| AR-4James Russell vs. Bruce Westerman | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | Safe R | R+30.1 | 0% |
District polls: AR-2: adjusted polling average R+4.7 (2 polls, newest 10/22/2026), 8% of the projection.
Open Arkansas on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.