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Colorado 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Colorado, John Hickenlooper (D) was all but certain to win the Senate race, Phil Weiser (D) had a 99% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 5.3 of Colorado's 8 House seats (they held 4 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Colorado on the interactive map →Colorado Senate race
- Polling average: no general-election polls
- Expert ratings: D+22.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 40%
- Fundamentals: D+22.5 (partisan lean D+6, national environment, incumbency) — 60%
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Colorado governor's race
- Polling average: D+17.0 across 2 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 27% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+20.8, the average of 8 forecasters — 33%
- Fundamentals: D+12.9 (partisan lean D+6, national environment, incumbency) — 40%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Weiser | Marx | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 57% | 41% | D+15.7 |
| Univ. of Colorado Boulderunrated | 10/29/2026 | 710 LV | 57% | 37% | D+18.8 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Colorado House races
Colorado has 8 congressional districts. Democrats hold 4 and Republicans 4. The model projects about 5.3 Democratic and 2.7 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-1Melat Kiros vs. Christy Peterson | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | Safe D | D+48.1 | 100% |
| CO-2Joe Neguse vs. Kelley Dennison | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | Safe D | D+39.1 | 100% |
| CO-3Dwayne Romero vs. Jeff Hurd | Dwayne Romero | Jeff Hurd | Lean R | R+5.4 | 17% |
| CO-4Eileen Laubacher vs. Lauren Boebert | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | Likely R | R+10.5 | 4% |
| CO-5Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | Tilt R | R+4.1 | 24% |
| CO-6Jason Crow vs. Jason Clark | Jason Crow | Jason Clark | Safe D | D+28.3 | >99% |
| CO-7Brittany Pettersen vs. Tim Bennett | Brittany Pettersen | Tim Bennett | Safe D | D+24.7 | >99% |
| CO-8 FlipManny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | Lean D | D+6.2 | 86% |
District polls: CO-4: adjusted polling average R+5.0 (1 poll, newest 10/09/2026), 3% of the projection.
Open Colorado on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.