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Florida 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Florida, Ashley Moody (R) had a 93% chance of winning the special Senate race, Byron Donalds (R) had a 82% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 6.9 of Florida's 28 House seats (they held 7 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Florida on the interactive map →Florida special Senate race
- Polling average: R+6.3 across 10 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+12.3, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+4.0 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Special election (Rubio seat); Moody appointed Jan. 2025
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Nixon | Moody | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 46% | 53% | R+7.3 |
| Targoz Market Research538 grade 1.8 | 11/02/2026 | 1,200 LV | 43% | 52% | R+8.1 |
| Stetson University538 grade 1.5 | 10/31/2026 | 861 LV | 45% | 49% | R+4.3 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 10/30/2026 | 1,200 LV | 43% | 49% | R+4.9 |
| St. Pete Polls538 grade 2.4 | 10/28/2026 | 916 LV | 45% | 49% | R+5.4 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Florida governor's race
- Polling average: R+4.8 across 10 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: R+6.0, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: R+2.5 (partisan lean R+5, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Jolly | Donalds | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 47% | 51% | R+4.3 |
| Targoz Market Research538 grade 1.8 | 11/02/2026 | 1,200 LV | 43% | 50% | R+6.1 |
| Stetson University538 grade 1.5 | 10/31/2026 | 861 LV | 45% | 51% | R+6.3 |
| ActiVoteunrated | 10/31/2026 | 400 LV | 48% | 52% | R+3.6 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 10/30/2026 | 1,200 LV | 45% | 49% | R+2.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Florida House races
Florida has 28 congressional districts. Democrats hold 7 and Republicans 20 (1 vacant or new). The model projects about 6.9 Democratic and 21.1 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-1Gay Valimont vs. Jimmy Patronis | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | Safe R | R+27.7 | <1% |
| FL-2Amanda Green vs. Austin Rogers | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | Likely R | R+13.4 | 2% |
| FL-3Seth Harp vs. Kat Cammack | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| FL-4LaShonda Holloway vs. Aaron Bean | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | Likely R | R+12.0 | 2% |
| FL-5Rachel Grage vs. John Rutherford | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | Safe R | R+18.0 | <1% |
| FL-6Eric Yonce vs. Randy Fine | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | Safe R | R+22.9 | <1% |
| FL-7Bale Dalton vs. Ryan Elijah | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | Tilt R | R+4.4 | 22% |
| FL-8Jennifer Jenkins vs. Mike Haridopolos | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | Likely R | R+15.1 | <1% |
| FL-9 FlipDarren Soto vs. Dan Green | Darren Soto | Dan Green | Lean R | R+5.4 | 17% |
| FL-10Maxwell Frost vs. — | Maxwell Frost | — | Safe D | D+60.0 | 100% |
| FL-11James Pericola vs. Joe Strada | James Pericola | Joe Strada | Likely R | R+12.3 | 2% |
| FL-12Kimberly Overman vs. Gus Bilirakis | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | Likely R | R+13.1 | 2% |
| FL-13Leela Gray vs. Anna Paulina Luna | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | Lean R | R+6.3 | 14% |
| FL-14Kathy Castor vs. Mike Beltran | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | Tilt D | D+3.6 | 75% |
| FL-15Robert People vs. Laurel Lee | Robert People | Laurel Lee | Safe R | R+17.6 | <1% |
| FL-16Kelly Kirschner vs. Sydney Gruters | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | Lean R | R+7.6 | 9% |
| FL-17Matthew Montavon vs. Greg Steube | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | Safe R | R+18.5 | <1% |
| FL-18Curtis Gibson vs. Scott Franklin | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | Likely R | R+16.7 | <1% |
| FL-19Victor Arias vs. Jim Schwartzel | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | Safe R | R+21.1 | <1% |
| FL-20Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs. Brent Andersen | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | Safe D | D+39.1 | 100% |
| FL-21James Martin vs. Brian Mast | James Martin | Brian Mast | Likely R | R+15.8 | <1% |
| FL-22Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | Toss-up | D+0.4 | 53% |
| FL-23Lois Frankel vs. Deborah Adeimy | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | Safe D | D+25.9 | >99% |
| FL-24Oliver Gilbert vs. Te Mayonna Brown | Oliver Gilbert | Te Mayonna Brown | Safe D | D+39.7 | 100% |
| FL-25Jared Moskowitz vs. Scott Singer | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | Lean D | D+5.5 | 83% |
| FL-26Nicole Locklin vs. Mario Díaz-Balart | Nicole Locklin | Mario Díaz-Balart | Likely R | R+15.8 | <1% |
| FL-27Eliott Rodriguez vs. María Elvira Salazar | Eliott Rodriguez | María Elvira Salazar | Lean R | R+7.7 | 9% |
| FL-28Phil Ehr vs. Carlos Giménez | Phil Ehr | Carlos Giménez | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
District polls: FL-14: adjusted polling average D+4.1 (2 polls, newest 10/22/2026), 7% of the projection.
Open Florida on the House forecast map →
Other states
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.