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Georgia 2026 Election Forecast
Final forecast, published Nov 3, 2026, 6:12 AM ET · 1,000,000 simulated elections · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026
In Georgia, Jon Ossoff (D) had a 98% chance of winning the Senate race, Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) had a 59% chance of winning the governor's race, and Democrats were projected to win about 5.0 of Georgia's 14 House seats (they held 5 before the election), according to PoliGov's final forecast for the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
See Georgia on the interactive map →Georgia Senate race
- Polling average: D+10.1 across 10 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+14.0, the average of 12 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+8.5 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Ossoff | Collins | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 55% | 45% | D+9.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/02/2026 | 2,500 LV | 53% | 46% | D+8.1 |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 55% | 40% | D+14.9 |
| ActiVoteunrated | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 54% | 46% | D+8.4 |
| Quantus Insightsunrated | 10/19/2026 | 755 LV | 53% | 45% | D+10.9 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the Senate forecast map →
Georgia governor's race
- Polling average: D+0.4 across 10 polls (newest 11/02/2026) — 62% of the projection
- Expert ratings: D+1.9, the average of 8 forecasters — 23%
- Fundamentals: D+3.1 (partisan lean R+1, national environment, incumbency) — 15%
Recent polls
| Pollster | Date | Sample | Bottoms | Jackson | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ResearchCo538 grade 2.4 | 11/02/2026 | 450 LV | 51% | 49% | D+1.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage538 grade 2.0 | 11/02/2026 | 2,500 LV | 49% | 49% | D+1.1 |
| Echelon Insights538 grade 2.7 | 10/27/2026 | 508 LV | 49% | 48% | D+0.9 |
| ActiVoteunrated | 10/20/2026 | 400 LV | 49% | 52% | R+2.6 |
| University of Georgia538 grade 2.2 | 10/20/2026 | 1,000 LV | 45% | 46% | R+0.6 |
Adjusted: the poll's margin after removing the pollster's house effect. Pollster grades: 538 (CC BY 4.0).
All polls: 270toWin
Open on the governor forecast map →
Georgia House races
Georgia has 14 congressional districts. Democrats hold 5 and Republicans 9. The model projects about 5.0 Democratic and 9.0 Republican seats.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Margin | Dem win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-1Amanda Hollowell vs. Jim Kingston | Amanda Hollowell | Jim Kingston | Likely R | R+14.3 | 1% |
| GA-2Sanford Bishop vs. Matt Day | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | Safe D | D+19.9 | >99% |
| GA-3Maura Keller vs. Brian Jack | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| GA-4Hank Johnson vs. James Duffie | Hank Johnson | James Duffie | Safe D | D+47.5 | 100% |
| GA-5Nikema Williams vs. John Oscar Salvesen | Nikema Williams | John Oscar Salvesen | Safe D | D+58.3 | 100% |
| GA-6Lucy McBath vs. Kevin Martin | Lucy McBath | Kevin Martin | Safe D | D+45.1 | 100% |
| GA-7Tony Kozycki vs. Rich McCormick | Tony Kozycki | Rich McCormick | Safe R | R+19.4 | <1% |
| GA-8Kelly Esti vs. Austin Scott | Kelly Esti | Austin Scott | Safe R | R+24.1 | <1% |
| GA-9Caitlyn Gegen vs. Andrew Clyde | Caitlyn Gegen | Andrew Clyde | Safe R | R+26.5 | <1% |
| GA-10Pam Delancy vs. Houston Gaines | Pam Delancy | Houston Gaines | Safe R | R+18.1 | <1% |
| GA-11Chris Harden vs. John Cowan | Chris Harden | John Cowan | Safe R | R+19.0 | <1% |
| GA-12Ceretta Smith vs. Rick Allen | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | Likely R | R+15.3 | <1% |
| GA-13Jasmine Clark vs. Jonathan Chavez | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | Safe D | D+38.5 | 100% |
| GA-14Shawn Harris vs. Clay Fuller | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | Safe R | R+28.9 | <1% |
Open Georgia on the House forecast map →
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How the model works: methodology. Forecasts are statistical estimates, not certainties or endorsements. Confirm your polling place and voting rules with your state or local election office.